SF: November 2025 Market Stats

As of the end of October, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had reached new highs; 30-year mortgage rates hit their lowest point in over a year; inflation ticked up slightly to 3%; and the Fed made its second .25% reduction of its benchmark rate in 2025 (while cautioning that another reduction in December was not certain). General consumer confidence remained low, with significant unease regarding personal finances, job security, and inflation - though affluent consumers enjoying substantial stock market gains were less worried. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index continued to decline from its tariff-shock peak in April but remained high by long-term norms.

The San Francisco real estate market continues to rapidly accelerate due to the Al startup boom: October's sales hit the highest count since May 2022, while luxury home sales were the best in 4 years. The number of price reductions plummeted 46% on a year-over-year basis, while the pending ratio - a standard measure of market heat - hit its highest monthly reading since the peak of the pandemic boom. 80% of house sales and 44% of condo sales sold for over the list price. Virtually all the market indicators point to a dramatic increase in buyer demand competing for a declining number of listings.

The market typically slows from mid-November to mid-January, though it's possible that this year will buck that trend. In any case, listing and sales activity continue in every month of the year - however, mid-winter is usually the period when buyers can negotiate most aggressively on unsold homes listed earlier in the year.