Feature image for Marin: January 2024 Market Stats

January 10, 2024

Marin: January 2024 Market Stats

By Compass


Dramatically improving economic indicators suggest a brighter 2024 housing market:

  • In the last 2 months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. With the fall in inflation this past year, the Fed is widely expected to begin dropping its benchmark rate, probably in multiple steps, in 2024. The consensus forecast among analysts is for further declines in mortgage interest rates.

  • After its end-of-year rally, the S&P Index was up 25% and the Nasdaq was up 45% in 2023 (though it ticked down in early 2024). This plays a major role in the Bay Area household wealth. 

  • On an annual basis, the 2023 median house sales price was down 4% from 2022 (the peak of the market), while on a quarterly basis, the Q4 price was up 4% year-over-year.

The 2023 market was characterized by high interest rates, financial market uncertainty, surprisingly strong demand (considering the first two issues), and an extremely low supply of new listings - which maintained upward pressure on prices, even as housing affordability dropped.

Sales numbers plunged due to loan rates and the inadequate supply of homes for sale, while for prospective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling, and economic conditions and consumer confidence rebounding, the big question is how much do rates need to fall for buyers and sellers to start participating in the market in normal numbers again? Right now, the direction is trending positive.

Note: As often seen in recent years, the complex economic, political, and social factors affecting interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence, and housing and financial markets can change quickly in unexpected ways. Forecasts and predictions are best guesses based on the interpretation of recent economic data and trends.

Wall Street Journal, 12/24/23, "For Much of the World, Inflation Will Be Normal in 2024 - Finally"Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*Marin County Median Home Sales Price Annual Median House Sales Prices, 1990 - PresentMarin County House Price Appreciation.Median House Sales Prices, 2015 - Present, by QuarterMarin County: Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values.Median House Values by Year since 2005*Marin County Median Condo Prices Annual Median Condo Sales Price by Year since 2005Marin County: Annual New-Listing Volume Number of New Listings Coming on Market by Year, since 2005*Marin County Annual Sales Volume Number of Home Sales by Year, since 2005*Marin County: Annual Sales - $5,000,000+ Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2005*Marin Luxury Home Market in 2023* Homes Selling for $4,000,000+, 12 Months SalesMarin County Luxury Home MarketMarin County Residential Market 2023 Home Sales by Price Segment*Marin County: 2023 Market Heat by Price Segment Months-Supply-of-Inventory & Average Days-on-Market Readings*Marin County Home Sales Volumes 2023 Sales by MLS Area*Marin County Homes Market Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) Marin County Market Dynamics & SeasonalityU.S. Percentage of All-Cash Buyers National Market Dynamics since 2015, by Month*Marin County - Speed of Sale Median Days on Market, Annual Readings by Year, since 2005*Marin County - Overbidding Asking Price Percentage of Sales Over List Price, Annual Readings, since 2005*Marin County: Overbidding & Underbidding Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Annual Readings, since 2005*Marin County Home Price Trends - Selected CitiesMarin County Home Price Trends - Selected Cities.Annual Median House Sales Prices since 2012Marin County Home Price Trends - Selected Cities Annual Median House Sales Prices since 2012Marin County House Values Median Dollar per Square Foot, 2023 Sales*Bay Area Median House Values by County 2nd Half 2023 Sales: By Bedroom/Bath Count*Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values by County 2nd Half 2023 Sales: By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count*Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981 & Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*

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